Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C0 0xc060…8f00 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized +$79 · open −$82

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-38.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+0.0%	-9.5%	0%	0%	-9.5%
≤30d	3	-32.4%	-38.8%	33%	0%	-38.8%
≤90d	3	-32.4%	-38.8%	33%	0%	-38.8%
all	3	-32.4%	-38.8%	33%	0%	-38.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-38.8%	0%	-38.8%
10%	-44.7%	0%	-44.6%
15%	-50.0%	0%	-50.0%
20%	-54.9%	0%	-54.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -32% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$15

Realized+$79

Unrealized−$82

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage18d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	No	28¢	4¢	$96	$15	−$82 (-85%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 22	$1	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 08	$1	−$1	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	28¢	$99	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$1	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$1	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.78 · official $14.81 (match) · 7 history records