Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc060…8956 sports 588 markets active 1h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL −$104,604 (-5%) realized −$104,420 · open −$489
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate73%425W / 157L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,747per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$590
14 days−$1,454
30 days−$1,818
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$114,972
crypto 19% −$15,046
other 11% −$208,255
world 7% +$6,176
sports 1% −$2,020
economics 1% −$92
tech 0% +$156
weather 0% −$800
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -39.7% -45.4% 39% 35% -25.8%
≤30d 118 -8.1% -16.9% 68% 50% -23.1%
≤90d 399 -8.1% -16.8% 72% 50% -85.1%
all 582 -7.4% -16.2% 73% 47% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 47% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 23% -22.1%
15% -31.5% 13% -29.6%
20% -38.2% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,077) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$714 vs −$2,598 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized−$104,420
Unrealized−$489
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses425 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions6
Markets (closed)582 / 588
History coverage567d
Avg bet$3,747
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $580 $90 −$490 (-84%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Suzan Lamens 75¢ 71¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 52¢ 48¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Yes 85¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 28¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 83¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 87¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jaqueline Cristian Jaqueline Cristian 82¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 46¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Sofia Kenin 40¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Leolia Jeanjean Ajla Tomljanovic 42¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 87¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Mirra Andreeva 22¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 70¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Marina Bassols Ribera 55¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rebeka Masarova vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 86¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva Yulia Starodubtseva 65¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 79¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Kansas City Royals 92¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$45 -88%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -81%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$27 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $51 +$30 +60%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $51 +$42 +83%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $101 +$20 +20%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $2,023 −$130 -6%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $100 +$17 +17%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $20 +$24 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $300 +$12 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 06 $2,563 −$835 -33%
ITF Harmon: Youssef Kadiri Hassani vs Hiromasa Koyama Jun 06 $20 +$17 +86%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 06 $10 +$13 +124%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $10 +$13 +124%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $9 +$5 +55%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Tyler: Landon Ardila vs Timo Legout Jun 05 $51 +$25 +50%
Birmingham: Harry Wendelken vs Mark Lajal Jun 04 $20 +$10 +48%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 04 $20 +$2 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 −$100 -100%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $30 +$15 +50%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 04 $20 +$15 +73%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $43 −$4 -9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Cezar Cretu May 30 $10 +$5 +46%
ITF Fukui: Hiromi Abe vs Rinko Matsuda May 30 $10 +$3 +27%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $10 +$1 +10%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $10 +$1 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $10 +$1 +11%
Little Rock: Jay Dylan Friend vs Justin Boulais May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $64 −$4 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $6 1h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 40¢ $51 10h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 75¢ $50 10h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 77¢ $10 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 52¢ $20 23h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 46¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 49¢ $102 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $480 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 64¢ $51 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 28¢ $51 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $51 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $51 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $51 3d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 83¢ $101 4d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 68¢ $101 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $104 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,120 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.13 · official $311.13 (match) · 3156 history records