Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc05b…05cd other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$2
world 29% +$8
politics 17% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 27% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 27% 0% -7.7%
all 64 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -8.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.38 per $1 lost it wins $6.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage373d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $80 +$4 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $35 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $63 +$5 +8%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Aug 10 $33 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 22 $3 $0 +6%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Jul 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 18? Jul 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $3 $0 +13%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jul 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18? Jul 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $42 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $42 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $11 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $31 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $42 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $42 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $42 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $42 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $38 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $35 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records