Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C0 0xc057…f545 other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,217 (+1%) realized +$1,216 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,120per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$17
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$129
politics 33% −$75
sports 11% +$1,146
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$5
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 84 +2.8% -7.0% 6% 5% -8.6%
all 151 +1.3% -8.3% 17% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 11% -8.9%
10% -17.1% 11% -17.6%
15% -25.1% 10% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,634) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$8 · ×10.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$1,216
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage161d
Avg bet$1,120
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $371 $372 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $2,553 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,528 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,353 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,954 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,808 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $76 +$77 +101%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,182 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,081 −$2 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $476 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,981 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,972 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,525 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $87 +$61 +70%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,210 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $4,693 −$5 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $37 +$29 +79%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,554 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 19 $629 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,213 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,183 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,149 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,105 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $2,869 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $446 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $446 5h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $399 24h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $399 25h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $407 30h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $407 32h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $570 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $571 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $336 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $336 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $403 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $403 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $396 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $397 4d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $260 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $260 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $713 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $714 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $861 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $863 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $636 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $637 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $693 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $694 9d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $772 9d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $773 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $820 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $821 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $854 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $855 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.02 · official $372.02 (match) · 526 history records