Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc057…1e47 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$877 (-14%) realized −$879 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$528
14 days−$893
30 days−$893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$905
sports 35% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.7% -21.0% 44% 44% -27.0%
≤30d 24 -9.0% -17.7% 54% 46% -29.7%
≤90d 24 -9.0% -17.7% 54% 46% -29.7%
all 24 -9.0% -17.7% 54% 46% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 46% -29.7%
10% -25.6% 46% -36.4%
15% -32.8% 25% -42.5%
20% -39.4% 17% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$147 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2,129
Realized−$879
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage14d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $967 $1,151 +$183 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $975 $839 −$136 (-14%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 52¢ $184 $139 −$45 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 +$51 +101%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $91 −$55 -60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 +$50 +120%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$60 -60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $123 −$121 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $302 −$300 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$71 -70%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $201 −$16 -8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $303 +$114 +38%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $119 +$53 +45%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 −$92 -46%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $253 −$200 -79%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$115 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$73 +24%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$7 +34%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$33 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $250 +$16 +6%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $200 +$10 +5%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $201 +$69 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $186 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croati BUY 29¢ $102 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $37 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $91 34h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $41 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $123 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 19¢ $30 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $101 5d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 71¢ $185 5d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 76¢ $101 5d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 76¢ $101 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $109 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $202 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $303 6d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 6d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 34¢ $38 6d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 44¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 6d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,129.34 · official $2,134.75 (match) · 67 history records