trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 22 | -55.5% | -59.7% | 23% | 23% | -79.8% |
| ≤30d | 30 | -35.0% | -41.2% | 37% | 37% | -33.3% |
| ≤90d | 30 | -35.0% | -41.2% | 37% | 37% | -33.3% |
| all | 30 | -35.0% | -41.2% | 37% | 37% | -33.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.2% | 37% | -33.3% |
| 10% | -46.8% | 33% | -39.7% |
| 15% | -52.0% | 27% | -45.5% |
| 20% | -56.7% | 20% | -50.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $30 | $34 | +$4 (+13%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $30 | $34 | +$4 (+12%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $30 | $25 | −$5 (-15%) |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | Yes | 70¢ | 69¢ | $22 | $22 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $12 | $12 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-30%) |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 2¢ | $7 | $2 | −$5 (-69%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $11 | +$5 | +48% |
| Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$7 | -65% |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 15 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $10 | +$9 | +90% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $20 | −$1 | -5% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | Jun 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $43 | −$43 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | Jun 14 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 14 | $40 | −$30 | -75% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $20 | +$11 | +55% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $12 | −$12 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $12 | +$12 | +97% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 12 | $298 | −$298 | -100% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $14 | +$5 | +35% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 09 | $40 | −$35 | -86% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Jun 07 | $5 | +$4 | +73% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET | Jun 07 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $500 | +$166 | +33% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $23 | +$18 | +79% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET | May 28 | $5 | +$2 | +40% |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? | May 28 | $15 | +$17 | +109% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | May 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |