Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C0 0xc055…336c other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$262 (+12%) realized +$309 · open −$47

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$377per market

Trades / day12.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$1,147now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)-3.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+6.2%	-3.9%	75%	75%	+33.6%
≤30d	4	+6.2%	-3.9%	75%	75%	+33.6%
≤90d	4	+6.2%	-3.9%	75%	75%	+33.6%
all	4	+6.2%	-3.9%	75%	75%	+33.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.9%	75%	+33.6%
10%	-13.1%	75%	+20.8%
15%	-21.5%	50%	+9.1%
20%	-29.2%	25%	-1.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 82% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$103 vs −$29 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×10.75 per $1 lost it wins $10.75

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,147

Realized+$309

Unrealized−$47

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$377

Trades / day12.3

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	91¢	84¢	$698	$640	−$57 (-8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	50¢	52¢	$496	$507	+$11 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$399	+$253	+63%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$31	+$7	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$129	+$49	+38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$29	−$29	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	91¢	$706	1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	86¢	$706	2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$191	5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$461	5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$652	20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$28	23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$321	24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$314	25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$178	25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$29	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$69	27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$31	28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$61	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,146.76 · official $679.11 · 15 history records