Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc054…2050 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$392 (-13%) realized −$338 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$35
14 days+$238
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$11
other 43% −$32
world 9% −$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +21.7% +10.1% 86% 86% -1.7%
≤30d 8 +24.9% +13.0% 88% 88% +16.1%
≤90d 9 +11.0% +0.4% 78% 78% -13.1%
all 18 +3.9% -6.0% 83% 44% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 44% -19.0%
10% -15.0% 44% -26.7%
15% -23.2% 28% -33.8%
20% -30.7% 11% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$220 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage204d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $101 −$49 (-33%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 89¢ 99¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $49 $44 −$5 (-10%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 29¢ $32 $14 −$17 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$8 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $27 +$12 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $430 +$202 +47%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Apr 07 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Feb 23 $400 +$17 +4%
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $300 −$287 -96%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $280 +$3 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 03 $69 +$5 +8%
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by December 31, 2025 Jan 03 $197 +$8 +4%
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 30 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Dec 12 $49 +$20 +40%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Dec 09 $150 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 1h
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 19h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $95 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $31 47h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $49 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $50 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 4d
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $38 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $91 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $115 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $150 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $314 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $430 78d
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 141d
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $13 141d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $282 174d
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $280 174d
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by December 31, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $23 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.43 · official $276.22 (match) · 152 history records