trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | $18 | $28 | +$11 (+59%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? | Jun 12 | $18 | +$11 | +57% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju | Jun 12 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? | Jun 11 | $17 | +$21 | +123% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 2 | Mar 03 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | Feb 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks | Feb 25 | $17 | +$23 | +138% |
| Cavaliers vs. Thunder | Feb 23 | $4 | +$5 | +108% |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 13 to | Feb 21 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 | Feb 19 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Men's Group C - Denmark vs. Latvia | Feb 17 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 18 | $194 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 18 | $190 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 18 | $197 | $0 | -0% |
| Sabres vs. Red Wings | Nov 17 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Nov 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Bulls | Nov 13 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Heat | Nov 10 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | Oct 09 | $23 | −$1 | -4% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? | Oct 05 | $9 | −$1 | -17% |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands | Oct 04 | $25 | $0 | -1% |
| US government shutdown by October 1? | Sep 29 | $1 | $0 | -30% |
| Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31? | Sep 22 | $7 | $0 | +5% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Sep 20 | $6 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 18 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Apr 17 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 16 | $16 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 11 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 11 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | Apr 09 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? | Apr 06 | $16 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? | Apr 03 | $7 | $0 | -5% |
| Ethereum all time high by March 31? | Apr 03 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 01 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? | Mar 30 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +27.3% | +15.2% | 67% | 67% | +10.5% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +27.3% | +15.2% | 67% | 67% | +10.5% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +27.3% | +15.2% | 67% | 67% | +10.5% |
| all | 34 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 21% | 12% | -14.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.8% | 12% | -14.9% |
| 10% | -33.8% | 12% | -23.1% |
| 15% | -40.2% | 12% | -30.5% |
| 20% | -46.0% | 12% | -37.3% |