Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc049…48ab sports 844 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$249 (+0%) realized +$256 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%308W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$141
14 days+$41
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$373
other 34% −$424
crypto 2% −$149
world 1% +$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +34.4% +21.6% 56% 56% +3.9%
≤30d 92 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 39% -11.4%
≤90d 92 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 39% -11.4%
all 837 -2.5% -11.8% 37% 37% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 37% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 36% -18.2%
15% -28.0% 36% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 35% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$56 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$256
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses308 / 529
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)837 / 844
History coverage237d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 837 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 56¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 353 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $199 +$281 +141%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $119 +$80 +67%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Mo Jun 20 $38 +$81 +214%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $149 −$147 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $43 +$35 +83%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 18 $138 −$135 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $71 +$146 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $80 −$79 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06 Jun 17 $40 +$92 +230%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $225 +$214 +95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $845 −$834 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Cucurella: 1+ goals Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $151 −$149 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $131 +$132 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $38 +$77 +203%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $166 +$137 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $201 +$203 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $52 +$124 +237%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $338 +$218 +65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$52 +147%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $202 +$84 +42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $163 −$161 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 05 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 05 $42 +$44 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $39 −$38 -98%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $78 +$110 +140%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $146 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $48 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $153 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U BUY 45¢ $80 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $480 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $199 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $199 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $119 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2. BUY 25¢ $98 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $149 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocc BUY 23¢ $101 6d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Mo BUY 31¢ $38 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 54¢ $43 6d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $138 6d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY 14¢ $28 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $217 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $49 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $22 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $80 8d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8d
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2 BUY 23¢ $31 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06 BUY 30¢ $40 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $438 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $225 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $845 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.61 · official $92.62 (match) · 1595 history records