Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc047…cce5 crypto 626 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$187 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%307W / 323L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day86.4pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$428
7 days−$515
14 days−$346
30 days−$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$336
sports 32% −$259
other 8% −$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -48.5% -53.4% 27% 27% -36.8%
≤30d 572 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 41% -13.8%
≤90d 630 -4.1% -13.2% 49% 44% -10.4%
all 630 -4.1% -13.2% 49% 44% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 44% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 40% -19.0%
15% -29.1% 35% -26.8%
20% -36.1% 27% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses307 / 323
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)630 / 626
History coverage35d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day86.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $119 $117 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$37 -1311%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $92 +$60 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $223 −$120 -54%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $56 +$25 +44%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $121 +$69 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $120 +$126 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $122 −$120 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $54 +$35 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $121 +$50 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $119 −$30 -25%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $122 −$23 -19%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $14 +$4 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $149 +$32 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $121 +$69 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $80 −$66 -83%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $9 +$6 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $79 +$21 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $15 +$4 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $11 −$10 -85%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $34 +$33 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $34 −$34 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $20 −$17 -85%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $4 +$1 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $151 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 06 $46 −$35 -76%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $120 −$81 -68%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 06 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $121 +$174 +144%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $8 +$4 +54%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $14 +$2 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $143 +$42 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 20m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 22m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 57m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $23 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $13 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $16 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.64 · official $116.64 (match) · 3500 history records