Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc045…6643 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$4
other 24% +$2
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% −$4
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 12% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 12% 0% -10.9%
all 31 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -10.8%
10% -20.0% 3% -19.3%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage490d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $39 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 20 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $5 $0 -2%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 28 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $170 in April? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -43%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18? Apr 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award Mar 03 $7 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $160 by February 28 2025? Feb 23 $11 −$3 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $9 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $27 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $40 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $40 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $24 38h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $12 38h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $14 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $25 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 45h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $25 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $42 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $23 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $19 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $4 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $3 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $35 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $43 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $4 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.17 · official $36.12 (match) · 87 history records