Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C0 0xc042…4afd crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$166 (+8%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 40% +$22
crypto 33% +$61
other 12% +$27
politics 10% −$19
world 3% +$7
finance 1% +$5
sports 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.8% -1.5% 100% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 2 +8.8% -1.5% 100% 50% -2.8%
≤90d 6 +12.4% +1.7% 67% 33% -8.8%
all 41 +13.1% +2.3% 56% 37% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 37% -2.4%
10% -7.5% 15% -11.8%
15% -16.4% 15% -20.3%
20% -24.6% 15% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage583d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 27 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 27 $120 +$6 +5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $203 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 30 $22 −$9 -41%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 14 $25 −$15 -60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 14 $6 +$14 +216%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 10 $246 +$14 +6%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 04 $147 +$28 +19%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $220 +$4 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 01 $136 +$2 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 26 $2 −$1 -50%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Sep 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 27 $88 +$10 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $3 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on August 1? Jul 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 06 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24? Jul 03 $14 +$10 +72%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jun 22 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down in May? Jun 18 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 04 $85 +$6 +7%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Apr 03 $146 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? Mar 03 $50 −$25 -51%
Solana above $260 on January 31? Feb 01 $65 +$10 +15%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Jan 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Jan 12 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 05 $55 +$12 +22%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Jan 02 $1 $0 -43%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024? Dec 29 $1 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Dec 29 $13 −$2 -15%
Solana above $190 on December 27? Dec 29 $33 +$85 +259%
Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? Dec 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Dec 22 $15 +$35 +233%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Coinbase #1 finance app on Monday? Nov 26 $10 +$57 +567%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 25 $15 +$41 +270%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Nov 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $113 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $50 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $120 32d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 64¢ $204 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 59d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $203 59d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 2¢ $10 74d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 4¢ $0 92d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 4¢ $3 92d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 4¢ $10 92d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 4¢ $5 92d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 4¢ $3 92d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 4¢ $4 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 93d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $153 164d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $42 165d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $51 165d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $147 181d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $220 217d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 7¢ $20 238d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 245d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 246d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 246d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $136 248d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? SELL No 57¢ $2 273d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 58¢ $2 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.78 · official $111.78 (match) · 125 history records