Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C0
0xc040…beac
world · 240 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$49,630 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31,919 · open +$10,712
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68,769
Realized+$31,919
Unrealized+$10,712
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses85 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions46
Markets (closed)196 / 240
History coverage55d
Avg bet$2,198
Trades / day61.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 46 History 196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,777
7 days+$4,254
14 days+$10,490
30 days+$14,538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 34¢ 46¢ $16,194 $21,545 +$5,351 (+33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 81¢ $11,644 $12,056 +$411 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $5,053 $5,288 +$236 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $3,265 $5,197 +$1,932 (+59%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 60¢ $3,221 $3,545 +$324 (+10%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $3,949 $3,541 −$408 (-10%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 40¢ $1,179 $2,816 +$1,637 (+139%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 27¢ 57¢ $1,015 $2,129 +$1,114 (+110%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $1,407 $1,826 +$419 (+30%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 24¢ 24¢ $1,500 $1,475 −$26 (-2%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 26¢ $620 $1,403 +$784 (+127%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 22¢ 22¢ $1,151 $1,188 +$37 (+3%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 52¢ $524 $1,138 +$614 (+117%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $2,276 $997 −$1,278 (-56%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $861 $850 −$10 (-1%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 41¢ $472 $718 +$246 (+52%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 50¢ 50¢ $580 $581 +$1 (+0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 71¢ 76¢ $372 $401 +$29 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 86¢ 100¢ $214 $248 +$34 (+16%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $70 $222 +$152 (+215%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 13¢ 11¢ $199 $169 −$29 (-15%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $107 $156 +$49 (+46%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $330 $155 −$175 (-53%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 34¢ 12¢ $340 $125 −$215 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $1,251 +$34 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $2,052 +$63 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $4,678 +$2,690 +58%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1,426 +$1,037 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $3,499 +$264 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $84 +$125 +149%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $1,096 +$40 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9,033 −$120 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $22 +$12 +57%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $639 −$40 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $2,248 +$1,293 +58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 11 $76 +$65 +85%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 11 $54 −$4 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $435 +$77 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 11 $252 +$26 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $76 +$12 +16%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 10 $430 +$93 +22%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2,720 +$111 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $871 +$163 +19%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Jun 10 $17 −$2 -13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $119 −$114 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $966 −$549 -57%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $130 +$238 +183%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $174 +$26 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $372 +$79 +21%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $147 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2,677 −$539 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $585 −$77 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $2,128 +$261 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $2,404 −$610 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $2,023 −$402 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1,200 −$173 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 05 $16 −$6 -35%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $44 +$4 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 04 $451 +$14 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $336 +$416 +124%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $199 +$509 +256%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $189 −$183 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $15,096 +$1,033 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $828 −$49 -6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $280 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 01 $325 −$25 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $561 −$65 -12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12,809 +$2,678 +21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3,911 +$544 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $972 −$232 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 31 $463 −$463 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 84% +$28,210
finance 6% +$11,762
politics 4% +$518
crypto 3% +$3,252
other 2% −$716
economics 0% −$65
weather 0% +$9
sports 0% −$339
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $369 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $68 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 42¢ $86 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $362 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $687 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 42¢ $276 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $111 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $578 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $695 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $513 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $200 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $249 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $65 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1,279 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 21¢ $127 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 21¢ $420 3h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $230 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $274 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +15.0% +4.0% 68% 48% +0.8%
≤30d 121 +85.2% +67.6% 50% 36% -5.9%
≤90d 196 +60.2% +45.0% 43% 31% -2.2%
all 196 +60.2% +45.0% 43% 31% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.0% 31% -2.2%
10% +31.1% 22% -11.5%
15% ← realistic here +18.4% 17% -20.1%
20% +6.8% 17% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,768.69 · official $73,320.15 · 3500 history records