Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc040…2081 crypto 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+0%) realized +$78 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%101W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$55
other 7% +$74
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 59 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 102 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$540) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×25.87 per $1 lost it wins $25.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses101 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)102 / 106
History coverage161d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $557 $557 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 30¢ 68¢ $30 $68 +$38 (+125%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+91%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 15¢ 34¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+127%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $547 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $541 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $541 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $540 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $540 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $539 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $538 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $538 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $537 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $433 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $539 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $538 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $537 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $536 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $536 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $534 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $533 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $532 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $529 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $528 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $525 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $523 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $523 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $522 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $557 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $555 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $555 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $554 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $554 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $553 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $552 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $552 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $546 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $551 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $550 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $550 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $549 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $547 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $547 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $546 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $545 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $545 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $544 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $544 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $543 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $543 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $542 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $541 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $541 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $540 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $540 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $539 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $538 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.34 · official $657.34 (match) · 223 history records