Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc03f…249d other 348 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20,975 (-13%) realized −$20,946 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%78W / 253L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day82.4pace
Fees−$2,421est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$573
other 30% −$1,405
politics 11% −$934
world 7% −$364
tech 1% −$98
crypto 1% −$131
culture 1% −$117
economics 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -4.5% -13.6% 28% 3% -12.0%
≤30d 254 -5.3% -14.3% 24% 3% -11.7%
≤90d 331 -6.0% -14.9% 24% 3% -11.7%
all 331 -6.0% -14.9% 24% 3% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 3% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 2% -20.2%
15% -30.5% 1% -27.9%
20% -37.3% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$20,946
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses78 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$2,421
Open positions24
Markets (closed)331 / 348
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$458
Trades / day82.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+2%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? No 21¢ 10¢ $63 $32 −$32 (-50%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 15¢ 16¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 72¢ 75¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 90¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+371%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 41¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+139%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 28¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? No 40¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 40¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 50¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+54%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 38¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 14¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? Jun 22 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31? Jun 22 $0 +$1 +763%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $284 Week of May 4 2026? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success Jun 22 $0 −$12 -3734%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 22 $0 −$4 -21490%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $176 +$1 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $410 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 21 $142 −$17 -12%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $400 −$10 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $862 −$4 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $178 +$1 +0%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $64 +$9 +14%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $154 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $169 +$3 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 21 $201 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $991 −$7 -1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $4,410 $0 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $245 −$5 -2%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $126 −$2 -2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,785 $0 +0%
Will LCK (South Korea) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knoc Jun 21 $94 −$38 -40%
Will Dplus Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 Jun 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will a player from England win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $24 −$18 -75%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $809 −$14 -2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $2,380 −$13 -1%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $22 −$6 -27%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4,770 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $118 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $190 −$3 -2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 21 $65 −$18 -27%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $136 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $504 −$3 -1%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $874 −$11 -1%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $189 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $64 −$4 -6%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $56 +$4 +6%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $18 +$5 +27%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? Jun 20 $170 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 15¢ $12 11m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 16¢ $0 11m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 15¢ $30 12m
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $90 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $78 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $79 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $42 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $42 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $6 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 43¢ $27 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 43¢ $9 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 42¢ $8 2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $1 2h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $44 2h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 2h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 2h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $7 2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $176 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $11 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 40¢ $75 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.36 · official $244.19 (match) · 3500 history records