Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc03e…c482 crypto 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-1%) realized −$110 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate55%86W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$8
14 days−$13
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$61
other 14% +$112
sports 9% −$111
economics 5% −$12
politics 0% −$37
tech 0% −$22
weather 0% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 40% -8.9%
≤30d 20 +2.5% -7.2% 60% 60% -8.6%
≤90d 36 +2.3% -7.4% 72% 58% -8.1%
all 157 -13.2% -21.4% 55% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 32% -10.3%
10% -28.9% 21% -18.9%
15% -35.8% 15% -26.7%
20% -42.1% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses86 / 71
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage236d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 83¢ 84¢ $249 $250 +$2 (+1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 24 $304 −$4 -1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $28 +$4 +13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 23 $344 −$2 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $64 +$20 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $374 −$10 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $139 +$20 +14%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $127 +$33 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $68 +$100 +146%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $140 +$26 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $127 −$126 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $104 +$89 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $143 +$49 +34%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $141 −$140 -99%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $66 +$16 +24%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 09 $68 +$13 +18%
Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Jun 03 $51 +$15 +29%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $63 +$10 +15%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $28 +$8 +27%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal May 21 $32 +$3 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $9 +$2 +26%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $25 +$8 +32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $23 +$7 +29%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 08 $30 +$3 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $43 +$2 +5%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualif Apr 20 $10 +$1 +13%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Apr 15 $11 +$1 +10%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 15 $33 +$5 +16%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Apr 09 $44 +$6 +15%
Bulls vs. Thunder Mar 30 $10 +$1 +5%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 27 $11 +$3 +28%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Mar 27 $51 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO3) - Journey Mar 25 $14 +$2 +14%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $157 +$81 +52%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -94%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $88 −$18 -20%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 1AM ET Mar 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 23 $43 +$2 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 23 $59 +$1 +1%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Mar 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3AM ET Mar 19 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 5AM ET Mar 19 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 11AM ET Mar 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $131 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $250 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 41¢ $127 11h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 46¢ $2 25h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 46¢ $2 25h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $178 33h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 46¢ $164 34h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $28 34h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $180 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $64 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $164 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $211 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $139 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $127 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $56 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $140 9d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $127 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $68 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $143 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $141 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $104 10d
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 80¢ $66 13d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 13d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Barbora Krejcikova 84¢ $68 15d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.49 · official $381.49 (match) · 441 history records