Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C0 0xc03e…da65 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,770 (-13%) realized −$1,770 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%29W / 28L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,109
7 days−$2,109
14 days−$2,109
30 days−$2,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,641
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -73.1% -75.7% 12% 12% -69.2%
≤30d 8 -73.1% -75.7% 12% 12% -69.2%
≤90d 11 -35.7% -41.8% 36% 36% -58.1%
all 57 -11.2% -19.6% 51% 49% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 49% -20.6%
10% -27.3% 47% -28.2%
15% -34.4% 39% -35.1%
20% -40.8% 26% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$189 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,770
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses29 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage104d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $406 −$406 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $814 −$182 -22%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 19 $362 −$362 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $837 −$837 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff Jun 19 $297 −$297 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $330 +$124 +38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $223 +$74 +33%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $116 +$107 +92%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $24 +$16 +67%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 12 $686 +$207 +30%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 12 $349 +$196 +56%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Mar 12 $569 +$54 +9%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $551 −$104 -19%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 11 $280 −$280 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 11 $100 +$45 +45%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $346 +$447 +129%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Mar 10 $307 −$307 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $11 +$4 +33%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Mar 10 $154 +$149 +97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $594 −$464 -78%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 10 $161 −$161 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 10 $434 +$354 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 09 $22 +$12 +56%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $240 +$160 +67%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $520 −$520 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $537 +$233 +44%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Mar 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 09 $106 −$106 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Mar 09 $114 +$186 +163%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 09 $265 +$74 +28%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 09 $106 −$62 -58%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 08 $78 −$78 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $200 +$96 +48%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $54 −$46 -84%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $70 −$63 -90%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $181 −$176 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $100 +$35 +35%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $50 +$54 +108%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $457 +$206 +45%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $255 +$208 +82%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Mar 08 $250 +$95 +38%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $273 −$170 -62%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $60 +$56 +93%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $200 +$92 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $455 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 72¢ $330 1h
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff BUY PARIVISION 65¢ $297 83d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 100¢ $297 83d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 75¢ $223 83d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 100¢ $223 83d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 52¢ $116 83d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 60¢ $24 84d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 69¢ $837 98d
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Vici Gaming 15¢ $8 98d
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Vici Gaming 14¢ $49 98d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 100¢ $894 99d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 77¢ $686 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $113 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $8 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $4 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $8 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $5 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $2 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $4 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $4 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $20 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $1 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $2 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $2 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $16 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $175 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 99¢ $363 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 75¢ $274 99d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 30¢ $150 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records