Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc036…2b99 weather 425 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$471 (+4%) realized +$472 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%205W / 213L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$354
7 days+$371
14 days+$1,030
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$737
sports 37% +$1,081
weather 15% −$66
other 2% −$178
politics 1% +$2
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +13.4% +2.6% 73% 67% -2.2%
≤30d 183 -21.8% -29.2% 52% 48% -8.2%
≤90d 418 -10.3% -18.9% 49% 46% -8.8%
all 418 -10.3% -18.9% 49% 46% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 46% -8.8%
10% -26.6% 42% -17.6%
15% -33.7% 33% -25.5%
20% -40.2% 21% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$472
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses205 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions7
Markets (closed)418 / 425
History coverage74d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 67¢ 69¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? No 80¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 48¢ 58¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 80¢ 93¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 60¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? No 65¢ 38¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $209 −$145 -69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $931 +$122 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$8 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +103%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $149 +$51 +34%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 +$137 +319%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $745 +$160 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $17 +$6 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $439 −$184 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $149 +$20 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$51 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$89 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $110 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$6 +58%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $883 +$116 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $139 −$134 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 20¢ $7 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $57 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,053 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $931 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $209 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 48¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $20 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $149 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $119 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $61 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $700 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $15 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $3 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $186 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $745 38h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $20 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 48¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 52¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.60 · official $79.44 (match) · 1003 history records