Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc033…196c crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$43 (-2%) realized +$108 · open −$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%58W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days−$142
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$118
politics 11% +$21
sports 4% +$84
other 4% −$37
world 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -30.0% -36.7% 42% 38% -23.5%
≤30d 53 -30.0% -36.7% 42% 38% -23.5%
≤90d 53 -30.0% -36.7% 42% 38% -23.5%
all 104 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 51% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 51% -5.8%
10% -15.0% 42% -14.9%
15% -23.2% 35% -23.1%
20% -30.7% 25% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses58 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)104 / 116
History coverage588d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 36¢ 1¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 40¢ 1¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $88 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$10 +47%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +108%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$40 +132%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 −$14 -87%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$48 +311%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.09 · official $7.80 (match) · 438 history records