Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc032…fa0f other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$26 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%45W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$75
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$100
sports 9% +$50
crypto 2% +$18
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 46% -6.7%
≤30d 90 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 46% -8.6%
≤90d 90 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 46% -8.6%
all 90 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 46% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 46% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 32% -17.4%
15% -40.9% 22% -25.4%
20% -46.7% 19% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$30 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses45 / 45
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)90 / 98
History coverage11d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $78 $77 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $14 $25 +$11 (+77%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 79¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $97 +$80 +82%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +42%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2 $0 +23%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $73 +$76 +104%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $126 +$18 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $180 +$6 +3%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $101 +$35 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $63 −$49 -78%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $24 +$15 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $28 +$45 +163%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $154 +$28 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 +$30 +31%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $28 +$23 +82%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $27 −$12 -47%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 −$12 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $75 +$18 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $9 −$8 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$12 -59%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $49 −$49 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$6 -64%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $4 $0 -5%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $12 +$6 +51%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $166 −$164 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $217 −$117 -54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $119 +$24 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $47 −$47 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $99 +$54 +55%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 −$30 -90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $251 +$88 +35%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 $0 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $197 +$39 +20%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 +$17 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $49 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $73 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 13h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 17h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $79 17h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 29h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 30h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 30h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 93¢ $59 35h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $99 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 35h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 35h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 35h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 35h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 35h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 35h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 36h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 36h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.39 · official $200.40 (match) · 350 history records