Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C0
0xc030…1398
weather · 411 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$452 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$459 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized+$459
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses81 / 327
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)408 / 411
History coverage96d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 408 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? No 52¢ 50¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? No 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on April 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 3? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$5 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$4 +67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$4 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $6 +$6 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $33 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $63 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $44 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 04 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 04 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $6 +$24 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $63 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $25 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 86% +$464
crypto 13% −$10
economics 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 48¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 33¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 54¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 54¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 44¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 60¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 60¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $9 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $50 6h
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) BUY Geek Fam ID 0¢ $0 19h
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) BUY Geek Fam ID 0¢ $0 19h
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) BUY Geek Fam ID 0¢ $0 19h
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) BUY Geek Fam ID 0¢ $0 19h
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) BUY Geek Fam ID 0¢ $0 19h
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) BUY Geek Fam ID 0¢ $0 19h
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) BUY Geek Fam ID 0¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -20.3% -27.9% 34% 28% -14.6%
≤30d 113 -26.6% -33.6% 15% 13% -18.1%
≤90d 378 -3.2% -12.4% 14% 13% -19.9%
all 408 -2.9% -12.2% 20% 13% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 13% -18.6%
10% -20.6% 11% -26.4%
15% -28.2% 11% -33.5%
20% -35.3% 10% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.86 · official $11.86 (match) · 1877 history records