Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C0 0xc02e…67ab other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$155 (+7%) realized +$139 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$45
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$53
finance 21% +$85
politics 21% +$94
world 11% +$9
tech 11% +$25
weather 7% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.1% +6.0% 100% 100% +6.0%
≤30d 4 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 75% +2.4%
≤90d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 86% 57% -3.2%
all 7 -0.3% -9.8% 86% 57% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 57% -3.2%
10% -18.4% 29% -12.5%
15% -26.3% 14% -20.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$140 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage73d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $253 $293 +$40 (+16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 89¢ 88¢ $153 $152 −$2 (-1%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 86¢ 73¢ $150 $128 −$22 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $260 +$45 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $234 +$25 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $246 +$9 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 08 $202 +$45 +22%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $200 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 10? May 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 13 $300 +$117 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 89¢ $154 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $151 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $260 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $254 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $246 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 90¢ $234 28d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $200 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 81¢ $202 38d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 10? BUY No 95¢ $140 73d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 72¢ $300 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $572.37 · official $570.62 (match) · 17 history records