Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc028…e519 other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate60%34W / 23L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1
other 22% +$13
politics 9% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 18 +0.7% -8.8% 67% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 +0.7% -8.8% 67% 0% -9.7%
all 57 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 7% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 7% -8.5%
10% -13.5% 4% -17.3%
15% -21.8% 2% -25.2%
20% -29.5% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses34 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage468d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $83 −$6 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $52 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $8 $0 -5%
Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 18 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2024-25 FA Cup? May 18 $4 +$11 +244%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $3 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 12 $2 $0 +11%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 05 $10 $0 -1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 05 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 29 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
New Pope in 2025? Apr 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $16 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 29 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 27m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $29 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $29 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $11 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $15 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $26 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $23 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $23 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records