Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc023…5ae8 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$963 (-1%) realized −$1,152 · open +$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate58%69W / 51L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$865per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$5,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$472
14 days−$594
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$548
politics 26% −$478
world 19% −$645
crypto 16% +$1,449
sports 5% −$1,226
economics 4% −$532
tech 1% −$64
finance 0% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -31.2% -37.7% 38% 12% -55.9%
≤30d 28 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 7% -13.4%
≤90d 51 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 8% -15.2%
all 120 -8.5% -17.2% 58% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 11% -10.5%
10% -25.1% 6% -19.1%
15% -32.4% 4% -26.9%
20% -39.0% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$112 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$5,532
Realized−$1,152
Unrealized+$189
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses69 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions20
Markets (closed)120 / 140
History coverage249d
Avg bet$865
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 71¢ $658 $803 +$146 (+22%)
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 99¢ 99¢ $657 $661 +$4 (+1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $618 $653 +$35 (+6%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $577 $589 +$11 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $495 $503 +$8 (+2%)
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 93¢ $399 $372 −$28 (-7%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $279 $286 +$6 (+2%)
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 95¢ 97¢ $280 $286 +$6 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $281 $284 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $281 $283 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $274 $277 +$3 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $134 $145 +$11 (+8%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 95¢ 95¢ $142 $142 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 95¢ 97¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $258 −$19 -7%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -87%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $68 +$25 +37%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 22 $420 −$222 -53%
Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30? Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 19 $555 −$143 -26%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 16 $133 −$25 -19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $79 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $157 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 13 $616 −$13 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 13 $526 −$18 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $588 +$110 +19%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $113 −$34 -30%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 12 $219 −$24 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $89 +$9 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $168 −$4 -2%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by June 30? Jun 09 $38 −$21 -55%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$6 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 06 $388 +$2 +1%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2,254 +$195 +9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 05 $490 +$5 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $800 +$48 +6%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Jun 02 $883 −$13 -2%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 02 $200 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,562 −$49 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,552 +$55 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 25 $120 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $128 −$15 -12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $312 −$18 -6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 14? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $3,112 −$8 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 22 $880 +$114 +13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $173 −$68 -39%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 22 $648 −$48 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $400 $0 +0%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 18 $578 −$293 -51%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $300 +$3 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $26 −$12 -47%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $2,142 −$1,201 -56%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $25 −$15 -60%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 10 $1,852 +$43 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $600 −$67 -11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $0 $0 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $2,456 +$5 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 30 $888 +$110 +12%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $1,370 +$29 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $87 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 2h
Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 95¢ $31 2h
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $399 2h
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 2h
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $657 2h
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 95¢ $280 2h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $47 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $18 2h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 7¢ $109 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 7¢ $111 3d
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 3d
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 7¢ $4 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 7¢ $130 3d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 88¢ $88 3d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 24¢ $93 3d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 88¢ $88 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 7¢ $0 3d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $140 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 7¢ $1 3d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $28 3d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $33 3d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $45 3d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $4 3d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $1 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 7¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,532.37 · official $5,531.02 (match) · 1032 history records