Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc01e…9141 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-28%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$143
world 47% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-49.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.7% -49.1% 20% 0% -35.2%
≤30d 5 -43.7% -49.1% 20% 0% -35.2%
≤90d 5 -43.7% -49.1% 20% 0% -35.2%
all 5 -43.7% -49.1% 20% 0% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.1% 0% -35.2%
10% -54.0% 0% -41.4%
15% -58.4% 0% -47.0%
20% -62.5% 0% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$36 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 16 $238 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 11 $78 −$10 -12%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 10 $54 −$54 -100%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 10 $57 −$4 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records