Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

C0 0xc01d…73c4 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$21 (+10%) realized +$21 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day8.6pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+1.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+12.0%	+1.3%	83%	50%	-4.0%
≤30d	6	+12.0%	+1.3%	83%	50%	-4.0%
≤90d	6	+12.0%	+1.3%	83%	50%	-4.0%
all	6	+12.0%	+1.3%	83%	50%	-4.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.3%	50%	-4.0%
10%	-8.4%	50%	-13.2%
15%	-17.2%	50%	-21.6%
20%	-25.3%	33%	-29.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% too few recent

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$29 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.38 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized+$21

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day8.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$31	$31	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$29	−$29	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$31	+$12	+40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$20	+$11	+56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$47	+$2	+3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$18	+$12	+64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$32	+$3	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$32	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$31	5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$31	5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$29	21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$49	22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$30	23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$17	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$18	26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	96¢	$27	28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$5	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.18 · official $31.18 (match) · 15 history records