Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc01a…b014 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$374 (-6%) realized −$380 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%37W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$501
30 days+$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$446
world 16% −$85
other 14% −$203
crypto 2% +$368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +66.8% +50.9% 100% 100% +50.9%
≤30d 8 +136.4% +113.8% 75% 75% +195.2%
≤90d 13 +97.6% +78.8% 69% 69% +61.2%
all 77 +16.2% +5.1% 48% 39% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 39% -14.8%
10% -4.9% 35% -23.0%
15% -14.1% 31% -30.4%
20% -22.5% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$41 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$380
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses37 / 40
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage117d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $141 $147 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $29 +$19 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$19 +200%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$25 +403%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $88 +$385 +436%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $2 +$6 +250%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $10 +$7 +69%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $19 +$8 +42%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $146 −$121 -82%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 11 $92 −$10 -10%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 11 $8 +$28 +350%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $94 $0 -0%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 11 $80 +$17 +22%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $33 +$8 +24%
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 10 $21 +$36 +170%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Mar 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Mar 10 $22 +$11 +52%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 10 $17 $0 -2%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $8 $0 +0%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 Mar 10 $851 −$553 -65%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 Mar 09 $424 +$160 +38%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score Mar 09 $47 −$2 -3%
SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 Mar 09 $41 +$8 +19%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? Mar 09 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 09 $10 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 09 $42 −$1 -3%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Mar 09 $181 −$2 -1%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-03-08? Mar 09 $122 −$62 -51%
Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $92 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Mar 08 $258 −$11 -4%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Mar 08 $111 −$7 -6%
Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5 Mar 08 $113 −$96 -85%
AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Mar 08 $244 −$111 -46%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $95 −$94 -99%
Will Getafe CF vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $155 −$23 -15%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 08 $187 −$68 -36%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $320 +$3 +1%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15? Mar 08 $50 +$4 +7%
Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 Mar 08 $90 +$42 +47%
Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 08 $148 +$63 +43%
Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Mar 08 $146 +$43 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 47m
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $49 48m
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $126 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 11d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 11d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 11d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $473 11d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 18¢ $81 11d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 11d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 11d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 11d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $104 11d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 11d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $36 11d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 12d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $50 57d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 58d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $2 58d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $19 58d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 58d
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $82 106d
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 69¢ $83 106d
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $38 106d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) SELL Real Madrid CF 75¢ $13 106d
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 106d
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $23 106d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) SELL Real Madrid CF 47¢ $23 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.80 · official $146.80 (match) · 229 history records