Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc017…71c1 sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-4%) realized −$130 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$78
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$61
sports 43% −$165
crypto 5% −$23
finance 3% +$9
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.8% +0.3% 57% 57% -2.4%
≤30d 51 -10.3% -18.8% 49% 49% -5.4%
≤90d 61 -23.3% -30.6% 41% 41% -10.9%
all 93 -13.4% -21.7% 44% 43% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 43% -11.5%
10% -29.2% 39% -20.0%
15% -36.0% 37% -27.7%
20% -42.3% 29% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$24 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 52
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage451d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$8 +389%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $192 +$45 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$39 +77%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$12 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $43 +$21 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $105 −$62 -59%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$90 -88%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $161 +$34 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $416 −$252 -61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $240 +$176 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $175 +$66 +38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $117 +$58 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$66 +130%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$17 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +139%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 59m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 62¢ $104 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 64¢ $107 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $90 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 97¢ $90 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.97 · official $118.97 (match) · 180 history records