Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc015…c944 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$58
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$17
other 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 42% -5.8%
≤30d 45 -3.8% -12.9% 58% 51% -9.1%
≤90d 45 -3.8% -12.9% 58% 51% -9.1%
all 45 -3.8% -12.9% 58% 51% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 51% -9.1%
10% -21.3% 38% -17.8%
15% -28.9% 20% -25.7%
20% -35.8% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage9d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $120 +$9 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $222 −$29 -13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $187 +$89 +47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $199 −$29 -14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $174 −$30 -17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 +$5 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$3 -9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $115 +$17 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$4 +15%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $45 +$72 +160%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$5 -13%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $56 +$8 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$9 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$9 +35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$5 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $141 −$78 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $108 −$19 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $55 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$7 -65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $83 +$7 +9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $19 +$5 +28%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 +$6 +53%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $45 +$13 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 96¢ $104 34m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 92¢ $100 36m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 88¢ $25 37m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 71¢ $20 42m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 97¢ $179 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 13¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 71¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 71¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $213 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $46 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $40 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $41 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 64¢ $63 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $65 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 75¢ $49 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 60¢ $47 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 60¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 60¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 17¢ $16 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $41 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 59¢ $90 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $109 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $109 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $34 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 32¢ $35 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $39 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 90¢ $100 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records