Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc015…92da crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%24W / 1L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$3
other 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 0% -9.4%
all 25 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses24 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage52d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $59 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? May 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $30 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Elmer Moeller Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $62 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $60 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $61 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $61 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $61 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $60 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $60 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $61 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $60 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $60 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $60 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $60 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $59 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $59 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 51d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 51d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $30 52d
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Elmer Moeller SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $10 52d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 52d
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Elmer Moeller BUY Jannik Sinner 99¢ $10 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records