Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc014…5ff4 sports 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$427 (+6%) realized +$273 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%104W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$145
14 days+$169
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$108
sports 26% +$105
other 11% −$178
crypto 8% +$281
politics 5% −$19
finance 2% −$6
tech 1% +$7
weather 0% $0
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +5.4% -4.7% 41% 30% -25.3%
≤30d 47 +29.7% +17.4% 53% 43% +11.5%
≤90d 183 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 40% -5.7%
all 187 +1.2% -8.5% 56% 40% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 40% -5.4%
10% -17.2% 32% -14.5%
15% -25.2% 26% -22.7%
20% -32.6% 23% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$861
Realized+$273
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses104 / 83
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions22
Markets (closed)187 / 209
History coverage103d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 84¢ $47 $269 +$222 (+472%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $78 $88 +$10 (+13%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $81 $85 +$4 (+5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 29¢ $45 $66 +$21 (+45%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+55%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 19¢ 81¢ $10 $44 +$34 (+329%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $19 $27 +$7 (+38%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $29 $12 −$17 (-60%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $13 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 16¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-82%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-64%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 59¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$91 +179%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7 +$31 +442%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$9 -21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +62%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$13 +61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$34 -68%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $2 +$8 +442%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will JD Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 13 $18 −$10 -56%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 13 $28 −$23 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$14 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 13 $35 −$30 -87%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 13 $68 −$20 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $113 −$92 -82%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +114%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +188%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $312 +$129 +41%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $34 +$8 +23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $173 +$141 +82%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $64 +$35 +54%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $9 +$42 +489%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $31 +$107 +345%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $30 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 17 $30 +$10 +32%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $105 −$11 -11%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $91 +$18 +20%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $31 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $19 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $24 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $6 15h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 7¢ $1 15h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 42¢ $5 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $861.49 · official $861.50 (match) · 846 history records