Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc014…8bb6 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -20.6% -28.1% 56% 48% -9.1%
≤30d 27 -20.6% -28.1% 56% 48% -9.1%
≤90d 27 -20.6% -28.1% 56% 48% -9.1%
all 27 -20.6% -28.1% 56% 48% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 48% -9.1%
10% -35.0% 48% -17.8%
15% -41.3% 26% -25.7%
20% -47.0% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $6 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 55 history records