Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc00d…b3a0 sports 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$176 (-1%) realized −$176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%107W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days+$16
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$261
tech 20% +$505
crypto 19% −$222
other 11% −$84
world 6% +$111
politics 4% −$243
finance 2% −$2
culture 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.9% +16.6% 75% 75% +23.0%
≤30d 13 +4.6% -5.3% 62% 62% -18.4%
≤90d 79 -37.4% -43.4% 34% 32% -42.9%
all 176 -3.3% -12.5% 61% 48% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 48% -11.1%
10% -20.9% 39% -19.6%
15% -28.5% 31% -27.4%
20% -35.5% 24% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$38 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses107 / 69
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)176 / 179
History coverage529d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 57¢ 58¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$32 +52%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$23 -89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$48 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$101 -99%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $86 +$16 +18%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $9 +$16 +170%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $101 +$62 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$44 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$99 -99%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $133 −$132 -99%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 Apr 16 $50 −$16 -32%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5 Apr 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 15 $49 −$23 -48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 15 $150 +$22 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 13 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 13 $28 +$27 +97%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 13 $50 +$38 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 11 $50 +$40 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 11 $62 +$33 +52%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $341 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5 Apr 10 $11 +$2 +16%
Spread: Warriors (-4.5) Apr 10 $18 +$10 +57%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $20 +$18 +89%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 10 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 09 $24 +$21 +89%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5 Apr 09 $11 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $27 −$21 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 02 $44 +$33 +74%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 02 $45 +$40 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 02 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 01 $20 +$16 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $80 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 5h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 8h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $102 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $102 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $86 10d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 45¢ $25 10d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $61 10d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $40 10d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $9 10d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 10d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $164 10d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 11d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Korea Republic vs. Czechi BUY 27¢ $41 11d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $100 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 14d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 80¢ $33 68d
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 SELL Under 44¢ $34 68d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 72¢ $100 68d
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 64¢ $50 68d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 51¢ $46 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL Yes 23¢ $25 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY Yes 43¢ $49 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.06 · official $100.06 (match) · 457 history records