Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc00c…65d6 politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$6
other 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.3% -16.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 -7.3% -16.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -7.3% -16.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 17 -5.8% -14.8% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage245d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -21%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -21%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -21%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +1%
Aster all time high by December 31? Nov 30 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 4h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 5h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 7h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 9h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 10h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 13h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 15h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 16h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 19h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 25h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 27h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 28h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 29h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 31h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 33h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.61 · official $177.61 (match) · 56 history records