Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C0 0xc008…6adf weather 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,916 (+39%) realized +$2,432 · open +$1,484
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$420per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$5,152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +24.6% +12.8% 50% 44% +45.2%
≤30d 18 +24.6% +12.8% 50% 44% +45.2%
≤90d 18 +24.6% +12.8% 50% 44% +45.2%
all 18 +24.6% +12.8% 50% 44% +45.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.8% 44% +45.2%
10% ← realistic here +2.0% 39% +31.3%
15% -7.9% 33% +18.6%
20% -16.9% 22% +7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$508 vs −$100 · ×5.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.07 per $1 lost it wins $5.07
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4,687
Realized+$2,432
Unrealized+$1,484
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? Yes 46¢ 77¢ $1,470 $2,456 +$985 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? No 56¢ 68¢ $1,424 $1,701 +$277 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $249 $468 +$219 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $46 $49 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+125%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $37 −$36 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $158 +$77 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 28? Jun 27 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Jun 27 $464 +$63 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Jun 27 $297 +$18 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1,750 +$2,486 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 25 $503 −$489 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $53 −$51 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $923 +$455 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $404 +$161 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $181 −$175 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $744 +$428 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $284 +$86 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $124 −$118 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $356 +$793 +222%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $184 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 63¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 55¢ $1,269 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 42¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,686.90 · official $4,686.90 (match) · 359 history records