trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -8.7% | -17.4% | 50% | 50% | -0.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -14.3% | -22.5% | 62% | 12% | -26.5% |
| all | 14 | -14.9% | -23.0% | 71% | 7% | -24.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.0% | 7% | -24.6% |
| 10% | -30.4% | 7% | -31.8% |
| 15% | -37.1% | 7% | -38.4% |
| 20% | -43.3% | 7% | -44.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | No | 57¢ | 56¢ | $342 | $339 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $189 | +$156 | +83% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 29 | $126 | −$124 | -99% |
| Wild vs. Stars | Apr 28 | $170 | −$168 | -99% |
| Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 | Apr 28 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb | Apr 28 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | Apr 28 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Apr 28 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12? | Apr 28 | $203 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Feb 10 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Feb 04 | $16 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? | Feb 04 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Jimmy Lai released by January 31? | Feb 04 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Feb 04 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? | Jan 10 | $21 | $0 | +2% |