Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C0 0xc006…5d0b sports 57 markets active 12h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$38 (+15%) realized +$48 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$30
crypto 21% +$10
other 20% +$1
world 8% −$7
politics 4% +$1
weather 3% +$2
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +28.0% +15.8% 61% 58% +18.0%
≤30d 40 +19.1% +7.8% 55% 52% +12.3%
≤90d 40 +19.1% +7.8% 55% 52% +12.3%
all 40 +19.1% +7.8% 55% 52% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 52% +12.3%
10% -2.5% 50% +1.6%
15% -12.0% 42% -8.2%
20% -20.6% 42% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)40 / 57
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 53¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 56¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 87¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 61¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? No 87¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 64¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 41¢ 5¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 15 $5 −$4 -71%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +169%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda: O/U 159.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4 +$8 +197%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 12? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 12h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 80¢ $5 16h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $2 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $2 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $5 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $2 19h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $5 23h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 81¢ $5 24h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $5 40h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 19¢ $1 40h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $5 40h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 40h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 62¢ $5 40h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 40h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 40h
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 53¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 53¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 63¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.51 · official $46.51 (match) · 99 history records