Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc005…7d6e other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$44
politics 23% −$7
economics 5% −$1
sports 3% +$25
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +5.5% -4.5% 23% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 108 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 7% -9.6%
all 111 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage93d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $187 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $343 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 05 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $315 $0 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $267 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $259 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 03 $283 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $256 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $262 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $270 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $270 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $263 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $283 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $785 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 17h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 19h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $187 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 14d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 22d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 22d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $74 23d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $49 23d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $49 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 24d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 27d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $50 28d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $50 28d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $53 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $54 29d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $7 29d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 30d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 30d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $44 31d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $44 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.04 · official $295.04 (match) · 312 history records