Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc004…34c6 world 44 markets active 3h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 16% +$1
sports 13% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 -2.1% -11.5% 24% 0% -9.8%
all 42 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage296d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 50¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $37 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $14 −$1 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 −$1 -32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $21 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Sep 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $15 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $14 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $37 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $37 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 7d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $36 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $36 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $33 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $7 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $21 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $26 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.14 · official $33.63 (match) · 164 history records