Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc001…59a3 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4,979 (-20%) realized −$4,979 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,107per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$538est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,888
7 days+$2,888
14 days−$1,331
30 days−$16,739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$760
crypto 18% −$4,315
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.2% +4.3% 40% 20% +123.3%
≤30d 11 -47.6% -52.6% 18% 9% -79.7%
≤90d 12 -12.0% -20.3% 25% 17% -28.1%
all 12 -12.0% -20.3% 25% 17% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 17% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 17% -35.0%
15% -34.9% 17% -41.3%
20% -41.3% 17% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,134 vs −$2,275 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,979
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$538
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage36d
Avg bet$2,107
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $116 +$3 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,000 +$3,736 +374%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $769 −$751 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4,388 −$4,218 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1,778 −$1,735 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $11,865 −$11,534 -97%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $1,064 −$1,039 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $407 −$400 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $718 −$700 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3,067 +$11,663 +380%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $16 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 96¢ $731 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $498 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $498 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $498 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $250 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $18 6h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1,972 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1,031 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $147 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records