Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfff…ff43 sports 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%63W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$55
14 days−$49
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$8
other 31% −$12
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +29.9% +17.5% 36% 36% -59.5%
≤30d 55 +32.5% +19.9% 38% 38% -23.5%
≤90d 197 +9.4% -1.0% 32% 32% -10.5%
all 197 +9.4% -1.0% 32% 32% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 32% -10.5%
10% -10.5% 32% -19.1%
15% -19.1% 32% -26.9%
20% -27.0% 32% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses63 / 134
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)197 / 203
History coverage67d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +253%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $2 +$5 +250%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +146%
Will CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional end in a draw? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 +$1 +60%
Will AC Goianiense vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? May 31 $2 +$4 +188%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? May 31 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia vs. Kosovo end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IF Brommapojkarna win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Avaí FC vs. Criciúma EC end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $2 +$16 +786%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Tolima end in a draw? May 27 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-27? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 36m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 16d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.05 · official $16.05 (match) · 319 history records