Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbffd…2af5 sports 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$368 (+4%) realized +$877 · open −$509
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%105W / 107L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$84
14 days−$195
30 days+$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$954
other 35% −$1,080
world 6% +$6
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +32.9% +20.3% 55% 48% -11.3%
≤30d 212 +16.3% +5.2% 50% 47% -5.0%
≤90d 212 +16.3% +5.2% 50% 47% -5.0%
all 212 +16.3% +5.2% 50% 47% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 47% -5.0%
10% -4.9% 42% -14.0%
15% -14.1% 40% -22.4%
20% -22.5% 39% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$516
Realized+$877
Unrealized−$509
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses105 / 107
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions8
Markets (closed)212 / 220
History coverage19d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $100 $416 +$316 (+316%)
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Tai Leonard Sach 86¢ 100¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+16%)
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Sara Saito 76¢ 76¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 51¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 76¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+72%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ $594 $0 −$594 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8 +$11 +134%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$47 +307%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$28 +1374%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $35 +$6 +16%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $16 +$5 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$35 +87%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $66 −$15 -23%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$51 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $13 +$11 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $416 +$25 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$33 +216%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 +$10 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $186 +$102 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $25 +$6 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$12 +113%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 −$3 -3%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 +$102 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $29 +$2 +7%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $35 +$5 +15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $82 −$80 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 76¢ $17 51m
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney BUY Tai Leonard Sach 86¢ $35 53m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $600 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $8 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 11h
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 11h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 86¢ $35 11h
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 83¢ $25 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $120 21h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $6 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $76 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 24h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $155 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 29¢ $51 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $22 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $81 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.22 · official $516.04 (match) · 405 history records