Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BF 0xbffb…a60e sports 732 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,677 (-4%) realized −$9,677 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%434W / 284L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day38.4pace
Fees−$729est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days−$637
14 days−$4,471
30 days−$14,493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$14,349
other 44% +$6,219
crypto 3% −$2,025
world 0% +$11
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +10.6% +0.1% 50% 30% -14.4%
≤30d 197 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 27% -21.6%
≤90d 718 -4.3% -13.4% 60% 41% -13.2%
all 718 -4.3% -13.4% 60% 41% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 41% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 31% -21.5%
15% -29.3% 25% -29.1%
20% -36.2% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$138 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses434 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$729
Open positions0
Markets (closed)718 / 732
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$341
Trades / day38.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 718 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $617 +$243 +40%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $17 +$13 +72%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$42 +212%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR C Jun 27 $20 −$6 -31%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $601 +$5 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $18 −$8 -47%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $343 +$10 +3%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Türk Jun 26 $30 +$243 +810%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 Jun 25 $539 −$79 -15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $116 −$111 -95%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $41 −$33 -80%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,650 −$1,181 -72%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $342 −$232 -68%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $52 −$50 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $487 +$53 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $84 −$23 -28%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $40 −$24 -60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,953 +$252 +13%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $46 −$11 -23%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $229 +$18 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $81 +$18 +22%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $68 +$32 +47%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,799 +$135 +8%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $806 +$13 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $35 −$25 -72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,646 +$157 +10%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 −$48 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $953 +$9 +1%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$5 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,647 +$187 +11%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $32 −$22 -69%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $40 −$22 -56%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $47 −$9 -18%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 −$27 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $132 −$37 -28%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $198 −$132 -67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $46 −$40 -86%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $960 +$13 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $38 −$36 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 +$21 +27%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $840 −$11 -1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $40 +$3 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,095 +$107 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $860 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 71¢ $617 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Ja BUY 15¢ $15 10h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $17 30h
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 64¢ $13 40h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR C SELL 26¢ $14 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND BUY 10¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY 31¢ $20 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR C BUY 36¢ $20 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 100¢ $607 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 99¢ $595 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 99¢ $6 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? A BUY 37¢ $30 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 38¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL 16¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 67¢ $67 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 28¢ $18 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Türk SELL 92¢ $273 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $343 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Türk BUY $10 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Türk BUY 10¢ $30 4d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 35¢ $29 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score AND Paraguay vs. Australi BUY 40¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 SELL 24¢ $461 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 27¢ $539 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $5 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Czechia 15¢ $8 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 24¢ $469 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 82¢ $820 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $830 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records