Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbffa…7e38 other 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%16W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$23
politics 27% −$25
sports 15% −$13
crypto 11% −$5
world 6% −$3
economics 6% −$12
culture 4% −$7
tech 2% −$6
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 76 -0.7% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 155 -0.5% -10.0% 6% 0% -9.9%
all 170 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses16 / 154
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage102d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $58 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $59 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $55 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $342 $0 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $58 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $39 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $56 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 09 $169 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $322 $0 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $309 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $156 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $119 −$2 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $527 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $60 51m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $57 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $58 9h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $58 10h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 18h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $67 18h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $68 26h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $45 27h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $45 32h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $54 32h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $55 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $51 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $51 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $39 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $22 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $18 3d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $49 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $15 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $15 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.74 · official $59.74 (match) · 718 history records