Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbff4…fb4e crypto 800 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$566 (-4%) realized −$566 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%494W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$94
14 days−$180
30 days−$697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$901
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -24.9% -32.0% 58% 58% -23.9%
≤30d 135 -9.3% -18.0% 66% 53% -19.0%
≤90d 496 -3.7% -12.8% 67% 57% -14.9%
all 800 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 52% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 52% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 34% -23.4%
15% -30.7% 20% -30.8%
20% -37.5% 10% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses494 / 306
Open positions0
Markets (closed)800 / 800
History coverage138d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 800 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $114 +$19 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$15 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $66 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $58 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $58 +$17 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $27 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$12 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $28 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$17 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $17 +$12 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 07 $32 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$14 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $69 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$12 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $59 −$30 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 06 $61 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 06 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $28 −$27 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $62 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $54 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2838 history records