Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbff3…3080 sports 568 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,646 (-160%) realized −$6,641 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%231W / 438L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$116
sports 32% −$56
culture 4% −$10
crypto 1% −$35
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 585 -24.4% -31.6% 38% 35% -64.5%
≤30d 587 -24.7% -31.9% 38% 35% -65.2%
≤90d 588 -24.8% -32.0% 38% 35% -65.3%
all 669 -30.3% -36.9% 35% 31% -60.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 31% -60.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 27% -63.9%
15% -48.5% 23% -67.4%
20% -53.5% 19% -70.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$6,641
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses231 / 438
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions88
Markets (closed)669 / 568
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 88 History 669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 50¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jesper de Jong 50¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 49¢ 49¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Andrey Rublev 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Alvaro Guillen Meza 50¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Suzan Lamens 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Joshua Charlton 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Rinky Hijikata 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Viktoria Morvayova 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Kimmer Coppejans 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 45¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Clara Tauson 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 45¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 45¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Katie Volynets 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet Maxime Janvier 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Zeynep Sonmez 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Charles Broom 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Milos Karol 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Marin Cilic 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 412 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 12AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$5 -59828%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 12PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 5AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 7AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 1AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 12PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 4PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$4 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 8PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 12AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 11AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$8 -214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$4 -1941%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 11PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 50¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $3 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 50¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 49¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 49¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 49¢ $2 1h
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton BUY Joshua Charlton 48¢ $2 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova BUY Viktoria Morvayova 48¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Rinky Hijikata 48¢ $2 1h
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 47¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 47¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $2 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 46¢ $2 1h
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet BUY Maxime Janvier 46¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 46¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 45¢ $2 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 45¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 45¢ $2 1h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 45¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 45¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 45¢ $2 1h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 45¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 45¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 45¢ $2 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 44¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 42¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 42¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 42¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.40 · official $155.40 (match) · 3500 history records