Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbff1…124e other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$22
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$17
politics 24% −$21
sports 22% −$12
crypto 8% −$14
economics 4% −$2
culture 4% −$1
world 3% −$5
finance 3% −$3
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 60 -0.6% -10.0% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 110 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 133 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage108d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $96 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $106 −$3 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $52 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $180 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $213 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $233 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $43 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $48 $0 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $59 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $179 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $102 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $140 −$2 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $44 $0 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $174 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $680 +$1 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $104 $0 -0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $54 2h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $54 7h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 7h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $40 14h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 15h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 22h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $45 23h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $46 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $51 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $52 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $36 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $52 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $47 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $16 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $44 4d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.52 · official $57.52 (match) · 525 history records