Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BF 0xbff1…3972 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$187 (+12%) realized −$312 · open +$499

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +170% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +134% what you keep after slip

Net edge+134%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$261per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$1,834now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+144.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+169.8%	+144.1%	100%	100%	+144.1%
≤30d	1	+169.8%	+144.1%	100%	100%	+144.1%
≤90d	1	+169.8%	+144.1%	100%	100%	+144.1%
all	1	+169.8%	+144.1%	100%	100%	+144.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+144.1%	100%	+144.1%
10%	+120.8%	100%	+120.8%
15%	+99.4%	100%	+99.4%
20%	+79.9%	100%	+79.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +170% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +170% · $-wt +170% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$346 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,834

Realized−$312

Unrealized+$499

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$261

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena	Sebastian Ofner	48¢	100¢	$290	$609	+$319 (+110%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	KT Rolster Challengers	39¢	70¢	$251	$454	+$203 (+81%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	42¢	40¢	$394	$374	−$20 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-0%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Over	45¢	44¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	Jun 18	$204	+$346	+170%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena	BUY Sebastian Ofner	48¢	$295	1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	39¢	$256	1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	SELL Dplus KIA Challengers	100¢	$550	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	42¢	$401	3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$203	3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	36¢	$204	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,834.14 · official $1,834.14 (match) · 7 history records