Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbff0…9885 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$127 (-5%) realized −$119 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$326
sports 42% +$181
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 43% -14.2%
≤30d 51 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 43% -14.2%
≤90d 51 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 43% -14.2%
all 51 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 43% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 43% -14.2%
10% -17.7% 43% -22.4%
15% -25.7% 39% -29.9%
20% -33.0% 27% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$41 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage6d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$40 -78%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$41 +81%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $308 −$300 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 +$45 +44%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $151 −$150 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 −$150 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $455 +$227 +50%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $203 +$273 +134%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $7 +$37 +510%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $201 +$65 +32%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $81 +$89 +109%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$35 +70%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$14 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$14 +48%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $7 +$39 +550%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$21 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 A BUY 34¢ $51 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 13¢ $11 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $92 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 58¢ $51 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $80 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $146 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $101 31h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $101 31h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 31h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $151 31h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $681 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 33h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $455 35h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 2d
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $266 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $81 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.95 · official $91.95 · 88 history records